CO129-437 - Public Offices - 1916 — Page 121

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To prevent any misconception on the part of the revolutionaries and correct the impression which they had apparently formed on the subject of foreign interference, I considered it desirable to instruct Mr. Goffe, who was in close touch with the leaders of the movement, to warn them that they were embarking on a foolish enterprise and that they need expect no support or sympathy from us or any other foreign Power. I also gave Mr. Goffe to understand that I would welcome any opportunity of arranging a settlement, and I thought that this message might perhaps have some weight with y Tsai Ao with whom I have had social relations in Peking. To give it more force, Mr. Goffe was authorised to communicate to the revolutionary leaders the substance of telegrams received from the consular officers in the adjoining provinces which went to show that their appeal to them had fallen on deaf ears, and that the co-operation on which they had relied was not likely to be forthcoming. Tsai Ao and Li Lieh-chün, however, are past masters in the arts of revolution, and were not amenable to advice from any quarter. On the last day of the year the two Governors of the province, acting under the pressure of their influence, notified His Majesty's consul-general that Yunnan had declared its independence of the Central Government. They were good enough to add that they would respect existing treaties, and formally asked that His Majesty's Government and the Government of Burma should be notified of the step they had taken.

This notification was ignored, and His Majesty's consul-general was instructed to maintain informal relations with any de facto Government with a view to the protection of British subjects and to keeping in touch with the situation generally, but he was warned carefully to avoid any action which might be construed as implying recognitiou of the change of régime.

On the day before the notification of the above declaration, the 30th December, a Presidential Mandate was issued removing the two Governors of Yunnan from their posts, depriving General Tsai Ao of his official titles, and appointing the commander of the 1st division of the Yunnan army and the commander of the 2nd division of the same force to act respectively as military and civil Governors of the province. As the signatures of both of these officers appeared on a telegram addressed to the authorities of all the province inviting their co-operation in support of the Republic, it seemed unlikely that they would accept the appointments offered to them, and in any case the difficulty of communicating with them appeared to raise an insuperable obstacle to the fulfilment of the President's orders. The Minister for Foreign Affairs asked me to forward the mandates in cypher through His Majesty's consul-general, but to have done so might have placed Mr. Goffe in a very difficult, if not dangerous position, and I was obliged to refuse. A similar request was, I believe, made to the French Minister with the same result.

This review brings the situation up to the end of the year, and during the last few days there have been no developments of any moment. The reports from Canton, Kuangsi, and Szechuan continue to indicate generally a determination to support Yuan Shih-kai's Government, but there are bere and there symptoms of uncertainty and indecision. By far the most serious evidence of this reached me in a telegram received to-day from the Governor of Hong Kong, who is eminently qualified to form an appreciation of the situation. His Excellency whose information is derived from Chinese sources, states that Ch'en Chjung-ming, a former Governor of the province who disappeared at the time of the second revolution, has issued a proclamation at Hui Chow Fu, a city near the coast, as Governor-General of Kuangtung; that Ching Yuen, a district city about 60 miles north of Canton has gone over to the rebels; that Kuangsi is about to go over; that Lung Chi-kuang, the present Governor at Canton, is weakening in his allegiance to Yuan Shih-kai, and that the sympathy of the Chinese in Hong Kong is now entirely opposed to the revival of the monarchical régime.

I have so far received no confirmation of these reports from Canton, and would like to treat them with some reserve for the moment as they conflict with nearly all the previous reports on the situation, and are probably intended to reflect merely the state of Chinese public opinion in the colony. As regards Lung Chi-kuang, however, it may be observed that his position is an extremely difficult one, especially for a Chinese. He is a Yünnan man whose family lives in that province, and it is quite conceivable that the revolutionaries might, by the detention or ill-treatment of his family, bring pressure to bear upon him which would seriously affect his allegiance to Yuan Shih-kai.

A telegram from His Majesty's consul-general at Yunnan-fu, also received to-day, tends to discount the gravity of the Hong Kong message. Mr. Goffe states that the leaders of the movement are beginning to realise the difficulties with which they are confronted. Except amongst interested persons there is no enthusiasm, and public

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opinion is either hostile or indifferent; there is a shortage of ammunition, a scarcity of recruits, and a great lack of communication.

Mr. Goffe adds that he has continued to impress upon them the hopelessness of their enterprise, but that they still have hopes of gaining the adhesion of some other provinces, and talk vaguely of awaiting the result of one or two encounters with the Government troops.

In the absence of expert advice, I have not attempted in this despatch to describe the military arrangements which are being made to cope with the rebellion. Generally speaking, they seem to be on an adequate scale to effect the object in view, but the remoteness of the disaffected province and the absence of all ordinary means of communication impose upon this weak Government a task which may well tax its powers severely. Yünuan has been a favourite scene for rebellious movements in the past, and has succeeded in maintaining an independent existence for several years on more than one occasion in the course of its long and chequered history.

I have, &c.

(Copy sent to India, Hong Kong, and Tokyo.)

J. N. JORDAN.